Business cycles and forecasting notes

These are the words you need for business cycles and forecasting. A business cycle is successive periods of growth and decline in economic activity. Activity fluctuates over months or years between…

This section explains the composition and features of a business cycle: what a typical cycle looks like and how to read it. It names the two periods, the two turning points and the four phases…

This section explains why business cycles happen: the exogenous (monetarist) explanation, the endogenous (Keynesian) explanation and how they compare. It ends with a short outline of the four types…

This section explains how government uses fiscal policy (government spending G and taxes T) and monetary policy (interest rates and the money supply) to smooth business cycles. This is also called…

This section explains the new economic paradigm: smoothing business cycles by using demand-side and supply-side policies together, so that output can grow for longer without inflation. In South…

This section explains the features that underpin forecasting: how indicators, the length and amplitude of cycles, the trend line, extrapolation and moving averages are used to predict where the…